Five Year Housing Land Position

This page presents the following information:

  • Five year housing land supply position as at 31 March 2021
  • Five year housing land supply position as at September 2021- interim update
  • Previous five year land supply positions

Five year housing land supply position as at 31 March 2021

In accordance with the Revised National Planning Policy Framework, July 2021 (NPPF), Local Planning Authorities are required to significantly boost the supply of housing through the identification of a deliverable five year housing land supply (1 April 2021 – 31 March 2026).

 The Council should identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide a minimum of five years’ worth of housing land. The purpose of the five year housing land supply is to provide an indication of whether there are sufficient sites available over the next five years for new residential development.

Trafford’s five year housing land supply is calculated against LHN using the standard method set out in national planning guidance. This is because the housing requirement set out in the Core Strategy (adopted January 2012) is more than five years old.

The LHN is calculated by taking national household growth projections (the latest used as advised by national government are from 2014) and applying an adjustment to take in to account affordability for Trafford. The latest median workplace-based affordability ratios (House price to workplace-based earnings ratio dataset) were published in March 2021. The number derived from this is then capped, which is determined by the current status of the Development Plan (i.e. more than five years old for Trafford).

Following this methodology the annual housing target for Trafford is 1,377 units per year.

To improve the prospect of achieving the annual target for housing completions, there should be a buffer on the identified supply of specific deliverable sites to provide flexibility in which sites could come forward. The buffer for Trafford is currently 20% because there has been under delivery of housing over the previous three years as set out in the Housing Delivery Test 2020 Measurement. This means that the Council has to identify enough sites to meet the five year requirement plus an additional 20%.

As at 31 March 2021 there were 4,273 units considered deliverable over the five year period 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, which is equivalent to 1,035 units per year.

Five year housing land supply as at 31 March 2021
DescriptionAmount
LHN target per year 1,377
LHN target per year + 20% buffer 1,652.4
LHN target 2021-2026 + 20% buffer 8,262
Deliverable housing land supply 2021-2026 4,273
Number of years supply calculation (4,273 ÷ 1,652.4) 2.58 years

Five year housing land supply position as at September 2021 - interim update

It should be noted that following a review of large sites and permissions granted, the following additional units have been included in the Council’s housing land supply at September 2021:

  • Skerton/Elsinore Rd, Old Trafford - 367 unit
  • Mayfield House, Dane Road, Sale - 29 units
  • Trafford Waters, Davyhulme - 350 units
  • Land at Heath Farm Lane, Partington - 108 units
  • Royal Canal Works, Stretford - 47 units

These additional units uplifts the housing land supply at September 2021 as follows:

Five year housing land supply position as at September 2021
 LHN Target per year  1,377
 LHN Target per year + 20% buffer  1,652.4
 LHN Target 2021-2026 + 20% buffer   8,262
 Deliverable housing land supply 2021-2026  5,174
 Number of years supply calculation (5,174 ÷ 1,652.4)  3.13 years

Previous five year land supply positions

For information, this table sets out the five year land supply position as at 31March each year for Trafford since 2012.

HGP: Housing Growth Point requirement
NPPF: National Planning Policy Framework
LHN: Local Housing Need

Previous five year land supply positions
Year (as at 31st March) Source of target Total target 5 year land supply Identified 5 year land supply No. Years supply calculation 
 2012

LDF Core Strategy Policy L1
+ HGP 

 3,470  4,346  6.2
 2013 LDF Core Strategy Policy L1
+ HGP 
 3,470  4,493  6.5
 2014  Core Strategy Policy L1
+ Shortfall (08/09-13/14)
+ HGP
+ 20% NPPF Buffer 
 6,697  4,272  3.2
 2015  Core Strategy Policy L1
+ Shortfall (08/09-14/15)
+ HGP
+ 20% NPPF Buffer 
 7,037  4,173  3.0
 2016

 Core Strategy Policy L1
+ shortfall (08/09-15/16)
+ HGP
+ 20% NPPF Buffer 

 7,230  4,301  3.0
 2017  Core Strategy Policy L1
+ shortfall (08/09-16/17) 
+ HGP
+ 20% NPPF buffer 
 7,535  5,947  3.9
 2018  Core Strategy Policy L1
+ shortfall (08/09-16/17) 
+ HGP
+ 20% NPPF buffer 
 7,622  4,239  2.8
 2019  LHN Target (1,362) 2019-2024
+ 20% NPPF buffer
 8,172  4,550  2.8
 2020  LHN Target (1,369) 2020-2025
+ 20% NPPF buffer
 8,214  3,870  2.4
 2021  LHN Target (1,377) 2021-2026
+ 20% NPPF buffer

 8,262

 4,273

 2.58