Five year housing land supply position statement as at 31 March 2020

In accordance with the Revised National Planning Policy Framework, February 2019 (NPPF), Local Planning Authorities are required to significantly boost the supply of housing through the identification of a deliverable five year housing land supply (1 April 2020 – 31 March 2025).

The Council should identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide a minimum of five years’ worth of housing land. This target is calculated against the housing requirement set out in adopted strategic policies or against the Local Housing Need (LHN) where the strategic policies are more than five years old. The purpose of the five year housing land supply is to provide an indication of whether there are sufficient sites available for the next five years.

Trafford’s five year housing land supply is calculated against LHN using the standard method set out in national planning guidance. This is because the housing requirement set out in the Core Strategy (adopted January 2012) is more than five years old. The LHN is calculated by taking national household growth projections (the latest used as advised by national government are the 2014 position), applying an adjustment to take in to account affordability for Trafford and the number as a result of this is then capped, which is determined by the current status of the Development Plan (i.e. more than five years old for Trafford). Following this methodology the annual housing target for Trafford is 1,369 units per year.

To improve the prospect of achieving the annual target for housing completions, there should be a buffer on the identified supply of specific deliverable sites to provide flexibility in which sites could come forward. The buffer for Trafford is currently 20% because there has been under delivery of housing over the previous three years. This means that the Council has to identify enough sites to meet the five year requirement plus an additional 20%. This underperformance is measured against the Housing Delivery Test, where the 2019 measurement indicated that the delivery was below 85% of the housing requirement in Trafford. Therefore A 20% buffer to the 1,369 units required per year gives a new target of 1,642.8 units a year.

As at 31 March 2020 there were 3,870 units considered deliverable over the five year period 2020/2021 to 2024/2025, which is equivalent to 774 units per year.

Five year housing land supply
LHN Target per year 1,369 *
LHN Target per year + 20% buffer 1,642.8
LHN Target 2020-2025 + 20% buffer 8,214
Deliverable housing land supply 2020-2025 3,870
Number of years supply calculation (3,870 ÷ 1,642.8) 2.4 years

* LHN Target per year is based on housing affordability in England and Wales: 2019 - released 19 March 2020