Appendix L - Affordable Housing Need In Trafford
Affordable Housing Need in Trafford (2001)
1. ASSESMENT OF NEED
The ODPM in its good practice guidelines 1 presents a needs assessment model which all local authorities are encouraged to follow as far as possible. The Council has used this model as a basis to quantify the estimated annual shortfall of affordable units per year.
In calculating the estimated backlog of existing need, the Council had made use of a wide range of data sources, as recommended by the ODPM 2. These include:
- Housing Needs Survey (2001)
- Trafford Council Housing Register
- HM Land Registry house price data
- Greater Manchester research - average earnings
- Trafford Council Right to Buy information
- Housing Investment Programme Statistical Appendices
- Housing Corporation Total Cost Indicators
The ODPM model provides a framework for need and supply expressed in the form of annual flows, i.e. the number of units required per year, over the Strategy period. The stages in the calculation are shown in Table 1 below:
Table 1 ODPM model of needs assessments 3
BACKLOG OF EXISTING NEED (TIMES A QUOTA) PLUS
NEWLY ARISING NEED MINUS
SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS EQUALS
NET SHORTFALL (SURPLUS) OF AFFORDABLE UNITS PER YEAR
|
a) Backlog of Existing Need
Trafford’s Housing Needs Survey (HNS), found that approximately 34,617 or 39.4% of households in Trafford are estimated to be in housing need owing to one or more needs factors. ODPM guidance recommends that this figure is “netted off” to allow for need likely to be met through in-situ solutions or moves within existing tenures, taking account of potential affordability and preferences. On this basis there are 23,174 households in Trafford who may have to move to offset their need.
It is obviously unlikely that all these households will actually move or require affordable housing provision if they do. The HNS therefore looks at the aspirations of the households surveyed and found that 11,530 households indicated that they would like to move but felt unable to do so 4. Of these 8,725 households indicated that they wanted to move but could not afford to. The Council will therefore take this figure as its baseline to estimate existing backlog as being most realistic in the Trafford context.
The ODPM suggest applying a quota to progressively reduce this backlog of need and has suggested a standard assumption of 20%. This gives a figure of 1,745 required units that should be met each year.
b) Newly Arising Need
The HNS estimates there to be 690 concealed households in Trafford. Applying the definition of affordability used in the HNS (30% of net equivalent income spent on housing) to these households indicates that 28% (193 households) of them will be paying more than 30% of their net income toward housing costs and may therefore require affordable housing.
As per ODPM guidelines, the Council has also included homeless acceptances within the calculation for emerging needs. 2003 Housing Investment Programme (HIP) returns indicate 450 households were accepted as homeless in 2002/2003.
This gives a total figure for newly emerging need of 193 + 450 = 643 households.
c) Supply
The annual supply of social housing has been estimated as follows:
L/A lettings (HIP return 2003) excludes transfers, mutual exchanges
|
1,014
|
|
|
Plus RSL lettings (HIP returns 2003)
|
370
|
|
|
Plus Anticipated RSL new build completions (averaged over 5 years and including units provided via LASHG)
|
89
|
|
|
Minus Estimated Right to Buy sales (averaged over 5 years)
|
145
|
Total
|
1,328
|
d) Shortfall
Using the ODPM assessment model the anticipated shortfall of affordable housing required is:
Backlog 20% of existing need (20% of 8725)
|
Per Annum 1,745
|
|
|
Plus Newly Arising Need
|
642
|
|
|
Minus Supply
|
1,328
|
|
|
Equals Estimated Shortfall
|
1,059 units p.a.
|
The Council therefore considers that a minimum target of 25%, with up to 35% on specific sites, is a realistic way to bridge this shortfall.
2. OTHER EVIDENCE OF HOUSING NEEDS
a) Declining Supply
The level of new house building by RSLs within the borough is relatively low and is likely to remain so given the current resources available from the Housing Corporation’s Approved Development Programme. There has been an average of 69 RSL completions per annum over the last 5 years. However in 2001/2002 only 38 new units were completed and this is considered to be a more realistic level. The Council is able to supplement this with a small programme of Local Authority Social Housing Grant resulting in approximately 20 extra new units each year.
However, at the same time the authority continues to lose stock through Right to Buy sales. Between 1 st April 1997 and 1 st April 2003, Trafford lost a total of 1,001 units due to the Right to Buy (6% of total stock). Over the same period only 477 new units have been provided by RSLs, a net loss to the social housing sector of 249 units.
b) High and Sustained Demand
There were 7,902 households registered for re-housing via Trafford’s Housing Register in 2003. An analysis of allocations for 2002/2003 shows that there were 587 lettings to households requiring dwellings with more than 2 bedrooms. At the same time there were 1,154 households requiring this type of accommodation on the Housing Register. At this rate it would take over 6 years to accommodate those families currently registered on the general waiting list. At the same time, the Council is currently undertaking research into the housing needs of Black and Minority Ethnic communities which is anticipated to show a lack of larger housing to meet the needs of these groups.
c) Increasing Homelessness
The increase in the number of households accepted as homeless is of particular concern. This has increased from 314 households in 1997 to 450 households in 2003 (an increase of 43%). This significantly impacts on the Council’s ability to re-house families from the general housing register.
It is clear that to meet the demand from both homeless households and households on the general register a significant increase in the Borough’s total stock of affordable housing is required.
d) House and Land Prices/Earnings Ratio
Trafford recently submitted evidence to the Urban Affairs sub-committee Inquiry into Affordable Housing. Regional Planning Guidance, the “M62 Corridor” C.U.R.S. research and our own HNS all confirm a high demand for housing across sub-areas and tenures, with a shortage of social and affordable housing.
HM Land Registry figures for July-September 2003 indicate that the average price for a house in Trafford is £177,118 (above the national average), ranging from £133,017 for a terrace to £352,420 for a detached property.
To buy an average semi-detached property in Trafford (£162,289) would require an annual household income of just under £50,000 and would equate to monthly housing costs of approximately £864 p.m. The HNS indicated that over four-fifths of households in social rented accommodation have net household incomes of less than £863, putting owner-occupation as an aspiration well beyond their reach. Only 11% of those households identified within the HNS who may have to move to offset their housing need had sufficient incomes to come within the affordability threshold (30% net income spent on housing costs) if buying an average priced semi-detached property.
New housing developments in Trafford are being produced, in the main, at high market values, e.g. £140,000 - £200,000 for a 2 bedroom apartment. In areas of high value the Council will consider how best to apply the affordable discount to ensure genuine affordability.
Research published by GM Researchl shows that average gross weekly earnings in Trafford were £606 per week (£31,512 p.a.) for men and £314 per week (£16,328 p.a.) for women. Using the HM Land Registry prices as a guideline it is apparent that a household on or below this average figure would struggle to support a mortgage for an average-priced family home in Trafford.
The HNS recommends a specific requirement of 596 affordable units in Trafford. This is based on households who can afford up to £250 housing cost per month. Given our own estimated back log, and that to buy a decent sized family home in Trafford at current prices would cost over £850 p.m., the number of those in need is obviously far higher than this figure.
The Housing Corporation has recognised the high cost of land and building in Trafford in its Total Cost Indicator tables for 2003/2004. These tables group local authorities into cost areas based on the price of land acquisition and building. Trafford has been placed in cost group B3 – the only northwest authority within this higher banding – comparable to highly priced areas in the southeast, East Anglia and the southwest.
Below are tables that highlight Trafford property price: income ratios, on a ward level and on an area board level. 2
ALTRINCHAM
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
48,860
|
|
Detached
|
592,650
|
|
12
|
Semi-detached
|
347,063
|
|
7
|
Terraced
|
241,347
|
|
5
|
Flat
|
163,500
|
|
3
|
AVERAGE
|
347,115
|
|
7
|
SALE MOOR / BROOKLANDS
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
34,580
|
|
Detached
|
280,718
|
|
8
|
Semi-detached
|
186,788
|
|
5
|
Terraced
|
123,924
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
115,214
|
|
3
|
AVERAGE
|
170,230
|
|
5
|
BROADHEATH
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
29,860
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
135,156
|
|
5
|
Terraced
|
101,313
|
|
3
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
123,147
|
|
4
|
BOWDON *
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
48,660
|
|
Detached
|
618,799
|
|
13
|
Semi-detached
|
279,921
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
177,690
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
190,066
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
393,334
|
|
8
|
*(Methodology explicitly excludes any research input from households with incomes over £1 million. Excluding ‘extreme’ incomes will have an effect on both the mean and distribution of incomes.)
BUCKLOW
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
23,020
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
79,777
|
|
3
|
Terraced
|
67,299
|
|
3
|
Flat
|
36,800
|
|
2
|
AVERAGE
|
65,753
|
|
3
|
DAVYHULME EAST / WEST
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
26,640
|
|
Detached
|
214,000
|
|
8
|
Semi-detached
|
106,254
|
|
4
|
Terraced
|
109,800
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
119,276
|
|
4
|
CLIFFORD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
18,170
|
|
Detached
|
117,500
|
|
6
|
Semi-detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Terraced
|
112,490
|
|
6
|
Flat
|
90,770
|
|
5
|
AVERAGE
|
100,063
|
|
5.5
|
FLIXTON
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
33,350
|
|
Detached
|
241,237
|
|
7
|
Semi-detached
|
163,872
|
|
5
|
Terraced
|
118,642
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
87,862
|
|
3
|
AVERAGE
|
153,141
|
|
5
|
HALE *
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
44,630
|
|
Detached
|
439,933
|
|
10
|
Semi-detached
|
325,275
|
|
7
|
Terraced
|
0
|
|
?
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
411,268
|
|
9
|
* (Methodology explicitly excludes any research input from households with incomes over £1 million. Excluding ‘extreme’ incomes will have an effect on both the mean and distribution of incomes.)
LONGFORD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
22,680
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
137,564
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
94,675
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
77,500
|
|
3
|
AVERAGE
|
112,382
|
|
5
|
MERSEY ST. MARY’S
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
27,780
|
|
Detached
|
294,100
|
|
11
|
Semi-detached
|
180,900
|
|
7
|
Terraced
|
126,687
|
|
5
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
178,337
|
|
6
|
PRIORY
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
24,630
|
|
Detached
|
266,725
|
|
11
|
Semi-detached
|
148,723
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
116,272
|
|
5
|
Flat
|
117,091
|
|
5
|
AVERAGE
|
139,820
|
|
6
|
ST. MARTINS
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
31,380
|
|
Detached
|
271,083
|
|
9
|
Semi-detached
|
149,472
|
|
5
|
Terraced
|
128,100
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
129,498
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
172,384
|
|
5.5
|
STRETFORD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
24,150
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
101,834
|
|
4
|
Terraced
|
104,483
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
102,067
|
|
4
|
TALBOT
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
25,090
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
168,336
|
|
7
|
Terraced
|
75,550
|
|
3
|
Flat
|
91,875
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
120,797
|
|
5
|
TIMPERLEY
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
37,660
|
|
Detached
|
411,775
|
|
11
|
Semi-detached
|
213,089
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
194,839
|
|
5
|
Flat
|
137,900
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
250,384
|
|
7
|
URMSTON
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
27,140
|
|
Detached
|
284,600
|
|
10.5
|
Semi-detached
|
148,422
|
|
5.5
|
Terraced
|
103,939
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
66,000
|
|
2
|
AVERAGE
|
142,101
|
|
5
|
VILLAGE
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
25,840
|
|
Detached
|
242,487
|
|
9
|
Semi-detached
|
151,876
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
123,033
|
|
5
|
Flat
|
0
|
|
?
|
AVERAGE
|
153,892
|
|
6
|
ALTRINCHAM BOARD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
40,252
|
|
Detached
|
481,452
|
|
12
|
Semi-detached
|
255,145
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
134,374
|
|
3
|
Flat
|
150,700
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
255,417
|
|
6
|
SALE BOARD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
31,180
|
|
Detached
|
287,409
|
|
9
|
Semi-detached
|
183,844
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
125,305
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
115,214
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
177,943
|
|
6
|
STRETFORD BOARD (Excluding Clifford Ward)
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
23,973
|
|
Detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Semi-detached
|
135,911
|
|
6
|
Terraced
|
91,569
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
84,687
|
|
4
|
AVERAGE
|
104,055
|
|
4
|
CLIFFORD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
18,170
|
|
Detached
|
117,500
|
|
6
|
Semi-detached
|
0
|
|
?
|
Terraced
|
112,490
|
|
6
|
Flat
|
90,770
|
|
5
|
AVERAGE
|
100,063
|
|
5.5
|
URMSTON BOARD
|
Average Property Price
|
Average Income
|
Property Price: Income Ratio
|
|
|
29,043
|
|
Detached
|
246,612
|
|
8.5
|
Semi-detached
|
139,516
|
|
5
|
Terraced
|
110,793
|
|
4
|
Flat
|
76,931
|
|
3
|
AVERAGE
|
143,463
|
|
5
|
Given the above findings, affordability is a key issue. The Housing Needs Survey research was conducted at a sub – area level, and highlighted that this problem exists throughout the Borough.
Based on the research findings, it was stated that affordability would remain a problem in Trafford. Using figures from 2001, of those households in need planning to move, 85.5% could afford around £150 per month, 68% could afford up to £200 per month, and 60.4% could afford up to £250 per month.
Assuming 1,506 households in need forming new households over the next 5 years, and an affordability threshold of £250 per month, around 596 units would need to be planned for across Trafford, accounting for around 10% of planned provision.
1 Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice (July 2000)
2 Page 134
3 Page 24
4 2000/2001 HNS Volume 2 Table 31b
l GM Research 2003 2. HM Land Registry 2004