GMSF FAQs: Housing

• How have the targets for housing been determined?
• How many homes are we planning for in Trafford?
• What is meant by the “baseline supply”?
• What do ‘allowances’ mean in relation to the baseline supply?
• How will the housing target be met in Trafford?
• Why is the annual housing target lower for the first five years of the plan?
• How do we have a sufficient housing land supply without the Land at Flixton Station, which was a proposed allocation in the GMSF 2016?
• What do we mean by affordable homes?

How have the targets for housing been determined?

National planning policy states that the targets for housing should be based on a standard methodology recently adopted in national planning guidance by the Government. Within this methodology, housing targets are based on ONS household projections with an uplift to cater for local affordability issues.

For the purposes of producing a plan like the GMSF, the Government has recently consulted on a requirement for Local Authorities to use the 2014 based household projections as the basis for determining housing need, instead of using the more recent 2016 based projections. The consultation states that lower numbers from the 2016-based projections do not qualify as an exceptional circumstance that justifies a departure from the standard methodology.

The housing targets that have been used in the GMSF reflect this and therefore, the target across Greater Manchester in the plan is 201,000 new homes. This figure is based on an anticipated population growth in Greater Manchester over the period of the plan of 250,000 people, and uses the nationally-agreed methodology to calculate how many homes will be required.

The methodology has three main stages: the first stage is to take the average projected household growth over ten years for each district in Greater Manchester.

This average growth figure is then adjusted to take into account affordability pressures in each district to provide a housing need figure.

Finally, the housing need figures for each district are combined to give us our total. Our total housing requirement is worked out annually and then multiplied by 19 to give the total figure needed up until 2037.

It should be noted that this is a draft plan and the GMSF process will need to reflect any changes in Government policy around housing targets as it progresses in the next stages.

• Please visit the Gov.uk website for changes to planning policy and guidance including the standard method for assessing local housing need
• Visit the GMCA website for the Greater Manchester Strategy: Our People, Our Place
• See the GMCA website for supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

How many homes are we planning for in Trafford?

For Trafford, the Government methodology (the LHN) results in a housing target of 25,365 units over the period 2018 – 2037 out of a total Greater Manchester target of 201,077 units. These figures for Trafford and Greater Manchester project forward existing trends and assume no policy intervention.

The GMSF is a joint plan across the ten Greater Manchester districts and the distribution of development proposed in the GMSF therefore reflects the overarching Spatial Strategy set out in the Plan. The Spatial Strategy focuses the highest level of growth in the central core, as well as higher levels of growth in the northern districts with the aim of boosting northern competitiveness and spreading growth more evenly across the city region. The GMSF housing targets for each district therefore reflect this Spatial Strategy and as a consequence differ from the LHN figure for all districts. See following table.

 For Trafford this results in a lower housing target than the LHN, 19,280 as opposed to 25,365. This reflects the GMSF’s clear policy emphasis of focusing additional housing and employment development in the central core and north Greater Manchester, whilst sustaining growth in the south.

Without the GMSF it is likely that Trafford would be required to meet a greater proportion of the LHN, which would likely require additional Green Belt release. Any joint working with other districts in Greater Manchester would need to be through the Duty to Cooperate which would be a more complex and less timely process, with different district Local Plans inevitably coming forward at different times.

The following table provides an overview of the total supply of housing across Greater Manchester, comprising the existing supply and the proposed GMSF sites.

Trafford has identified enough land for 20,472 homes up to 2037. This allows for approximately 6% flexibility and choice against the target of 19,280 homes.  

Some flexibility against the target is necessary in order to demonstrate to a Planning Inspector (at the Examination in Public) that Greater Manchester has identified sufficient housing land to meet the Greater Manchester LHN target of 201,077 and Trafford’s specific requirement within this annual target. The GMSF needs to include an appropriate level of flexibility in overall land supply to take into account that some sites may not come forward as currently envisaged as well as allowing some choice in the delivery of sites. This allows for a range of opportunities, choice and flexibility in the market. Across Greater Manchester sufficient land has been identified for an approximately 9% buffer against the target. This is considered to be sufficient and will allow Greater Manchester to demonstrate at the Examination that it can meet its LHN.

• See the GMCA website for supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

What is meant by the “baseline supply”?

The baseline supply is the supply which is already identified across Greater Manchester by each of the ten districts. The baseline supply is made up of all sites which are currently under construction, sites with approved planning permission and other identified sites that are not reliant on the allocations identified in the GMSF. The baseline supply typically looks ahead to the next 15 years.

• See the GMCA website supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

What do ‘allowances’ mean in relation to the baseline supply?

Allowances are small site windfall allowances. Windfall sites are sites that are not specifically identified as part of the baseline supply or potential GMSF allocations. Although it is difficult for Local Authorities to identify them as part of the baseline supply such sites will come forward over the plan period and it is therefore important to capture their contribution when calculating the baseline supply.

Whilst there is no nationally set methodology for establishing what an appropriate small sites allowance would be, a common approach is to base it on an analysis of past trends. For the GMSF the small sites allowance will be applied from 2023/24 for the remainder of the plan period. Many of the equivalent ‘small sites’ that are likely to come forward earlier will already have planning permission and so will have been included in the baseline supply.

• See the GMCA website for supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

How will the housing target be met in Trafford?

In Trafford there is an existing baseline supply of 13,361 units. This represents 65% of the land identified in Trafford to meet the housing requirement. The sites which make up the existing supply can be viewed on MappingGM.

There is however a shortfall against the overall GMSF requirement for Trafford. To make up this shortfall it has been necessary to propose some Green Belt release. Two sites are therefore proposed in Trafford: New Carrington and Timperley Wedge.

New Carrington will deliver:

• Approximately 6,100 units up to 2037, with the potential to deliver 10,000 units overall. The site will therefore be capable of meeting the longer term housing needs of the borough.
• A minimum of 30% affordable housing

Timperley Wedge will deliver:

• Approximately 2,400 units up to 2037
• A minimum of 30% affordable housing
• Visit the GMCA website for Trafford Allocations  

Why is the annual housing target lower for the first five years of the plan?

The number of new homes that are expected to come forward in the first five years is lower than other years in the plan because we have spent time looking at the likely phasing of sites and when new homes will be completed. The masterplanning and infrastructure requirements required to support the development of some sites means that they may only produce large numbers of new dwellings in the second half of the plan period.

A phased approach has therefore been applied in the GMSF - it is anticipated that there will be around 9,200 housing completions on average until 2023 across Greater Manchester, accelerating to an average of around 11,070 net additional dwellings per annum up to 2037.

• See the GMCA website for supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

How do we have a sufficient housing land supply without the Land at Flixton Station, which was a proposed allocation in the GMSF 2016?

The Land at Flixton Station is no longer proposed for allocation in the GMSF 2019. Trafford has been able to accommodate the loss of this site through the following:

• The overall housing target for Trafford has reduced from 23,100 (as set out in the GMSF 2016) to 19,280 units, which is a result of an overall reduction across Greater Manchester.
• The baseline supply has been optimised through increasing densities (where appropriate) on some of our urban sites.
  • In addition, and as with the previous draft GMSF in 2016, the GMSF strategy seeks to concentrate development in the central core and to boost northern competitiveness.

What do we mean by affordable homes?

This plan is not just about land and buildings, it’s our plan for making Greater Manchester’s places and spaces fit for now and the future.  One size does not fit all. A mix of homes is what is needed to make Greater Manchester thrive – houses of different sizes, different prices, in places where people want to live. Affordable housing is defined by national policy as “housing for sale or rent, for those whose needs are not met by the market”.

• Download a PDF of the National Planning Policy Framework 

In Trafford there will be a minimum of 30% affordable housing provided within the New Carrington and Timperley Wedge allocations. The new Trafford Local Plan will also identify an appropriate target for affordable homes which will need to be delivered as part of new developments elsewhere in Trafford.

A new Trafford Housing Strategy 2018-2033 has been developed that identifies the key housing priorities for the borough and sets out the measures required to help the Council and other public and private stakeholders deliver them.

• Download a PDF of the Trafford Council Housing Strategy 2018-2033

In addition, a housing vision has been prepared for Greater Manchester and work is progressing on a Housing Strategy for the City Region. Alongside the GMSF, the Housing Strategy will help us ensure we have the right homes in the right places to meet the needs and aspirations of current and future citizens, with at least 50,000 more affordable homes over the next 20 years, and a Greater Manchester definition of “affordability”.

• Look at the Combined Authority meeting paper: Housing Vision
• Look on the GMCA website for supporting documents, specifically the Housing topic paper

You can download a PDF of these Frequently Asked Questions